Saturday, July 19, 2003
SARS: THE NIGHTMARE SCENARIO
In something like 100 days, SARS could break out in a devastating manner because the animal reservoir for the virus has still not been determined and that reservoir might not be as limited and exotic as some people think. If the finding that suggests that wild pigs are SARS carriers is accurate, and if the death of some domestic pigs in China's Guangdong Province was from that virus, then the epidemic that occurs when the seasons change could be mind-boggling.
If the SARS-associated coronavirus is now spreading throughout the pig population all over China, the next epidemic will overwhelm that country's public health system. And if it is in pigs, they will be faced with the problem of controlling the disease in pigs which may mean trying to kill all of the infected pigs in China, and that would cause all kinds of disruption. We can expect international panic. We can also expect a major epidemic in North America and if that happens, our pigs could turn into the next reservoir for SARS. This scenario is utterly within the realm of possiblity and should be taken seriously by national security types because it could cause a breakdown of economies across the globe.
Right now it appears that most scientific authorities are just praying that this won't happen.
Some of the negligent villains in this nightmare scenario would turn out to be all the pig researchers who know about the porcine coronavirus problem all over the world. The pork industry and its research puppets should be on the front lines of SARS research, and instead what we are hearing is total silence and what we are seeing is total inaction.
Here's a question for economists and investors. What will the stock market look like in November and December if people are walking around New York and all the other major cities in the world in medical masks? If that happens, you can thank the pork industry and its researchers for their proactive response to SARS.
In something like 100 days, SARS could break out in a devastating manner because the animal reservoir for the virus has still not been determined and that reservoir might not be as limited and exotic as some people think. If the finding that suggests that wild pigs are SARS carriers is accurate, and if the death of some domestic pigs in China's Guangdong Province was from that virus, then the epidemic that occurs when the seasons change could be mind-boggling.
If the SARS-associated coronavirus is now spreading throughout the pig population all over China, the next epidemic will overwhelm that country's public health system. And if it is in pigs, they will be faced with the problem of controlling the disease in pigs which may mean trying to kill all of the infected pigs in China, and that would cause all kinds of disruption. We can expect international panic. We can also expect a major epidemic in North America and if that happens, our pigs could turn into the next reservoir for SARS. This scenario is utterly within the realm of possiblity and should be taken seriously by national security types because it could cause a breakdown of economies across the globe.
Right now it appears that most scientific authorities are just praying that this won't happen.
Some of the negligent villains in this nightmare scenario would turn out to be all the pig researchers who know about the porcine coronavirus problem all over the world. The pork industry and its research puppets should be on the front lines of SARS research, and instead what we are hearing is total silence and what we are seeing is total inaction.
Here's a question for economists and investors. What will the stock market look like in November and December if people are walking around New York and all the other major cities in the world in medical masks? If that happens, you can thank the pork industry and its researchers for their proactive response to SARS.
