Saturday, August 09, 2003
HARVARD'S HENRY NIMAN SEES A SARS
APOCALYPSE COMING AS SOON AS
THE WEATHER GETS COLDER
The mutating virus seems to be spreading in the general population.
While we have mainly been concerned about the probable spread of the SARS-associated coronavirus in the pig population of China, Henry Niman, a Harvard Medical School scientist, has a more pressing concern. He thinks that the Sars-associated coronavirus has established a significant reservoir in the human population and as soon as the seasons change, a new SARS epidemic will explode and dwarf the first one. He doesn't write the whole screenplay, but between the lines of what he is saying is a disaster about to happen that could change life as we know it. We're talking about hospitals overflowing with SARS patients, economic collapse, thousands of people in quarantine, maybe even martial law. Of course it is always possible that we could get lucky and the SARS coronavirus won't have the heart to do it. But Niman's analysis of the available data is pretty persuasive.
Niman surfaced in the news months ago amid the confusion about what the mortality rate of SARS is. He blew the whistle on some fuzzy math that were suggesting that the mortality rate for SARS was in the range of 5%. A no-nonsense look at the actual number of cases by Niman revealed that the real mortality rate of SARS is and was always 15%. When Niman factors in as many as 25% of patients who don't die but also never fully recover, one gets a truly horrific picture of what SARS is. And what it is going to be is even more terrifyng, if Niman is right. Eight to twelve weeks from now could be the beginning of the kind a public health panic only seen in our lifetime in the movies. As Niman has said in several postings on various public affairs sites, we have trouble right here in River City.
On The Agonist site, Niman wrote in June, "The WHO conference on SARS in Malaysia has just ended with warnings to remain vigilant because SARS could re-emerge and the animal reservoir is not well defined. The SARS epidemic is about to enter the 2nd 100 days since WHO issued its alert, but it is not clear that officials are paying attention. SARS is not going to re-emerge from the wilds of Guangdong Province from some exotic animal. SARS is right here in River City, complete with a strong set of deletion and point mutations."
Ominously, he also wrote that "The data just released from the Canadian National labs in Winnipeg confirms the early data which showed evidence for the SARS coronavirus in probable and suspect cases as well as patients with symptoms who failed to meet the WHO case definition for suspect or probable cases. Many of their contacts were not interviewed or even identified. Investigators in Toronto as well as Hong Kong are now going back to do more widespread tracing on patients positive for the virus to better understand how far and wide the virus has spread. The finding of evidence of the SARS virus in patients with a broad spectrum of symptoms suggests the virus has spread quite widely. Molecular epidemiology can help trace the virus as well as mutations. It seems highly unlikely that the 29 nt deletion will be restored and it also seems unlikely that the various point mutations will go away. In the fall, when flu and cold season returns, the SARS symptoms will be masked by flu and cold symptoms as well as unrelated cases of atypical pneumonia. Co-infection of patients with coronaviruses such as 229E or OC43 and SARS coronavirus will also provide opportunities for novel recombinants. Such recombinants with the infectivity of a cold virus and the potential for causing a fatal pneumonia would represent a formidable challenge."
"Formidable challenge" is the way that academics say "Yikes!"
APOCALYPSE COMING AS SOON AS
THE WEATHER GETS COLDER
The mutating virus seems to be spreading in the general population.
While we have mainly been concerned about the probable spread of the SARS-associated coronavirus in the pig population of China, Henry Niman, a Harvard Medical School scientist, has a more pressing concern. He thinks that the Sars-associated coronavirus has established a significant reservoir in the human population and as soon as the seasons change, a new SARS epidemic will explode and dwarf the first one. He doesn't write the whole screenplay, but between the lines of what he is saying is a disaster about to happen that could change life as we know it. We're talking about hospitals overflowing with SARS patients, economic collapse, thousands of people in quarantine, maybe even martial law. Of course it is always possible that we could get lucky and the SARS coronavirus won't have the heart to do it. But Niman's analysis of the available data is pretty persuasive.
Niman surfaced in the news months ago amid the confusion about what the mortality rate of SARS is. He blew the whistle on some fuzzy math that were suggesting that the mortality rate for SARS was in the range of 5%. A no-nonsense look at the actual number of cases by Niman revealed that the real mortality rate of SARS is and was always 15%. When Niman factors in as many as 25% of patients who don't die but also never fully recover, one gets a truly horrific picture of what SARS is. And what it is going to be is even more terrifyng, if Niman is right. Eight to twelve weeks from now could be the beginning of the kind a public health panic only seen in our lifetime in the movies. As Niman has said in several postings on various public affairs sites, we have trouble right here in River City.
On The Agonist site, Niman wrote in June, "The WHO conference on SARS in Malaysia has just ended with warnings to remain vigilant because SARS could re-emerge and the animal reservoir is not well defined. The SARS epidemic is about to enter the 2nd 100 days since WHO issued its alert, but it is not clear that officials are paying attention. SARS is not going to re-emerge from the wilds of Guangdong Province from some exotic animal. SARS is right here in River City, complete with a strong set of deletion and point mutations."
Ominously, he also wrote that "The data just released from the Canadian National labs in Winnipeg confirms the early data which showed evidence for the SARS coronavirus in probable and suspect cases as well as patients with symptoms who failed to meet the WHO case definition for suspect or probable cases. Many of their contacts were not interviewed or even identified. Investigators in Toronto as well as Hong Kong are now going back to do more widespread tracing on patients positive for the virus to better understand how far and wide the virus has spread. The finding of evidence of the SARS virus in patients with a broad spectrum of symptoms suggests the virus has spread quite widely. Molecular epidemiology can help trace the virus as well as mutations. It seems highly unlikely that the 29 nt deletion will be restored and it also seems unlikely that the various point mutations will go away. In the fall, when flu and cold season returns, the SARS symptoms will be masked by flu and cold symptoms as well as unrelated cases of atypical pneumonia. Co-infection of patients with coronaviruses such as 229E or OC43 and SARS coronavirus will also provide opportunities for novel recombinants. Such recombinants with the infectivity of a cold virus and the potential for causing a fatal pneumonia would represent a formidable challenge."
"Formidable challenge" is the way that academics say "Yikes!"
Thursday, August 07, 2003
AND IF SARS BREAKS OUT IN THE
USA IN THE AUTUMN . . .
"If SARS becomes established here the way it did in Toronto, all hell is going to break loose," warns Arthur Kellermann, chairman of the department of emergency medicine at Emory University in Atlanta. "We're struggling to meet tonight's demand for 911 calls, much less a major respiratory disease."
--From The Wall Street Journal
USA IN THE AUTUMN . . .
"If SARS becomes established here the way it did in Toronto, all hell is going to break loose," warns Arthur Kellermann, chairman of the department of emergency medicine at Emory University in Atlanta. "We're struggling to meet tonight's demand for 911 calls, much less a major respiratory disease."
--From The Wall Street Journal
Tuesday, August 05, 2003
ARE PIGS A SARS RESERVOIR IN CHINA?
Maybe someone should interview
Zhong Nanshan
Back on April 6, South Africa's News24.com reported that "Zhong Nanshan, touted as China's first health expert to identify the new disease, said Guangdong province's Center for Disease Control and Prevention recently completed a study of 30 animal types and found the virus in snakes, wild pigs, monkeys and bats."
On June 4th, the Xinhua News Agency reported that "Although there is no direct evidence that the SARS virus originated in wildlife, such as the civet cat or the wild boar, Zhong considers that it is probably the case."
How we got from "found the virus" to "no direct evidence" is somewhat of a mystery, perhaps political in nature. The truth has a way of doing sommersaults and backflips in China. Especially about SARS. We heard from one scientist today that even genetic sequences of the SARS coronavirus have a way of suddenly changing in China.
Zhong Nanshan would make a great interview subject for some enterprising mainstream journalist who can get through to him. Is the SARS coronavirus in wild pigs or not? The future health of the world may be riding on the answer to that question.
Maybe someone should interview
Zhong Nanshan
Back on April 6, South Africa's News24.com reported that "Zhong Nanshan, touted as China's first health expert to identify the new disease, said Guangdong province's Center for Disease Control and Prevention recently completed a study of 30 animal types and found the virus in snakes, wild pigs, monkeys and bats."
On June 4th, the Xinhua News Agency reported that "Although there is no direct evidence that the SARS virus originated in wildlife, such as the civet cat or the wild boar, Zhong considers that it is probably the case."
How we got from "found the virus" to "no direct evidence" is somewhat of a mystery, perhaps political in nature. The truth has a way of doing sommersaults and backflips in China. Especially about SARS. We heard from one scientist today that even genetic sequences of the SARS coronavirus have a way of suddenly changing in China.
Zhong Nanshan would make a great interview subject for some enterprising mainstream journalist who can get through to him. Is the SARS coronavirus in wild pigs or not? The future health of the world may be riding on the answer to that question.
